Multinomial Distribution

Author

John Robin Inston

Published

September 25, 2026

0.1 Multinomial Distribution

For experiment extracting \(n\) balls of \(k\) colors from a bag with replacement. Denote the variable describing the number of balls extracted of colors \(i=1,\dots,k\) by \(X_{i}\) with probability \(p_{i}\) that a given extraction will be in color \(i\). In vector notation these are denoted \(\boldsymbol{X}\) and \(\boldsymbol{p}\). #### Probability Mass Function

The probability mass function of the multinomial distribution is \[ p_{\boldsymbol{X}}(\boldsymbol{x})=p_{X_{1}, \dots, X_{k}}(x_{1}, \dots, x_{k})= \begin{cases} \frac{n!}{\prod_{i=1}^kx_{i}!}\prod_{i=1}^k p_{i}^{x_{i}} & \text{if }\sum_{i=1}^kx_{i}=n; \\ 0&\text{o.w.}. \end{cases} \] This can be expressed using the gamma function as \[ p_{\boldsymbol{X}}(\boldsymbol{x})=p_{X_{1}, \dots, X_{k}}(x_{1}, \dots, x_{k})= \frac{{\Gamma\left( \sum_{i}x_{i}+1 \right)}}{\prod_{i}\gamma(x_{i}+1)}\prod_{i=1}^k p_{i}^{x_{i}}. \] #### Moments

The expectation and variance are given by \[ \begin{align} \mathbb{E}[\boldsymbol{X}] & =n\boldsymbol{p}=\begin{bmatrix} np_{1}\\ \vdots \\ np_{k} \end{bmatrix} \\ \text{Var}(\boldsymbol{X}) & =n(\text{diag}(\boldsymbol{p})-\boldsymbol{pp}^T)=\begin{bmatrix} np_{1}(1-p_{1}) & -np_{1}p_{2}& -np_{1}p_{3} & \cdots & -np_{1}p_{k} \\ -np_{2}p_{1} & np_{2}(1-p_{2}) & -np_{2}p_{3} & \cdots & -np_{2}p_{k} \\ \vdots & \vdots & \ddots & \vdots & \vdots \\ -np_{k}p_{1} & -np_{k}p_{2}& -np_{k}p_{3} & \cdots & np_{k}(1-p_{k}) \end{bmatrix}. \end{align} \]

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