Expectation

Author

John Robin Inston

Published

September 25, 2026

1 Integration and Expectation

A measure \(\mu\) on measure space \((\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mu)\) is said to be finite when \(\mu(\Omega)=1\) (hence all probability measures are finite). A measure is said to be \(\sigma\)-finite if the set \(\Omega\) can be covered with at most countably many measurable disjoint sets with finite measure. All finite measures are naturally also \(\sigma\)-finite.

We say that an event occurs almost surely (a.s.) if the (probability) measure of the set of outcomes where the event does not occur has probability \(0\).

On a measure space \((\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mu)\) with \(\sigma\)-finite \(\mu\) we can define the Lebesgue integral of a measurable function \(f:\Omega \to \mathbb{R}\). Since a probability measure is \(\sigma\)-finite, for probability space \((\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P})\) we can define the Lebesgue integral of a random variable (measurable map) with respect to probability measure \(\mathbb{P}\) which we denote \[ \int_{\Omega}Xd\mathbb{P}=\int_{\Omega}f(\omega)d\mathbb{P}(\omega). \] For the formal construction of this integral please see our notes on Measure Theory or [[knowledge-mathematics-analysis-real-analysis]]. This integral satisfies the following important properties:

  1. If \(X\geq 0~a.s.\) then \(\int_{\Omega}Xd\mathbb{P}\geq 0\),
  2. If \(a \in \mathbb{R}\) then \(\int_{\Omega}aXd\mathbb{P}=a\int_{\Omega}Xd\mathbb{P}\),
  3. \(\int_{\Omega}X+Y d\mathbb{P}=\int Xd\mathbb{P}+\int Yd\mathbb{P}\),
  4. If \(X \leq Y~a.s.\) then \(\int_{\Omega}Yd\mathbb{P}\geq \int_{\Omega}Xd\mathbb{P}\),
  5. If \(X=Y~a.s.\) then \(\int_{\Omega}Xd\mathbb{P}=\int_{\Omega}Yd\mathbb{P}\),
  6. \(\left\lvert \int_{\Omega}Xd\mathbb{P} \right\rvert\leq \int_{\Omega}\lvert X \rvert d\mathbb{P}\).

For (\(\sigma\)-) finite \(\mathbb{P}\) with Stieltjes measure function \(G\) on the real line, i.e. \(\mu((a,b])=G(b)-G(a)\) we write \[ \int_{\Omega}f(\omega)d\mu(\omega) = \int_{\mathbb{R}}f(x)dG(x). \] Particularly, when \(\mu\) is the Lebesgue measure i.e. \(G(x)=x\) then we write \(\int_{\mathbb{R}}f(x)d(x)\).

The measure \(\mu\) is said to be the counting measure when \[ \mu(A)=\begin{cases} \lvert A \rvert & \text{if }A\text{ is finite} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise}. \end{cases} \] For such a measure with a countable set \(\Omega\) and corresponding \(\sigma\)-algebra \(\mathcal{F}\) the Lebesgue integral is a summation \[ \int_{\Omega}f(\omega)d\mu(\omega)=\sum_{\omega \in \Omega}f(\omega). \] Most importantly, for probability measure \(\mathbb{P}\), the expectation of random variable \(X\) is defined \[ \mathbb{E}[X]:=\int_{\Omega}X(\omega)d\mathbb{P}(\omega). \] We introduce the notion of \(L^p\) spaces as a useful tool for categorizing functions. For fixed \(p \geq 1\) we denote by \(L^p\) the collection of measurable functions such that \[ \int_{\Omega}\lvert f(\omega) \rvert ^p d\mu(\omega)< \infty. \] We say that all functions \(f\in L^1\) are integrable.

2 Integral Inequalities

Jensen's Inequality: For convex function \(\varphi\) and random variable \(X\) on a probability space \((\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P})\) we have \[ \varphi(\mathbb{E} X)\leq\mathbb{E}\varphi(X). \] Rewriting the expectation in its integral form we get the probability measure theoretic form of the result \[ \varphi\left(\int_{\Omega}Xd\mathbb{P}\right)\leq \int_{\Omega}\varphi(X)d\mathbb{P}. \] Hölder's Inequality: Let \(X\) and \(Y\) be random variables, \(p,q \in (1,\infty)\) and \(\frac{1}{p}+\frac{1}{q}=1\). We have that \[ |\mathbb{E}[XY]|\leq \mathbb{E}|XY|\leq (\mathbb{E}|X|^p)^{1/p}\cdot (\mathbb{E}|Y|^q)^{1/q}. \]

Cauchy-Schwartz Inequality: From Hölder's Inequality with values \(Y=1\) and \(p=2\) and specifically states \[ \mathbb{E}|X|\leq (\mathbb{E}|X|^2)^{1/2}. \] Lyapunov's Inequality: This is a special case of Hölder's Inequality, replacing \(\lvert X \rvert\) by \(\lvert X \rvert^r\) with \(r>0\) and writing \(s=rp\), which states \[ (\mathbb{E}[\lvert X \rvert^r] )^{1/r}\leq (\mathbb{E}[\lvert X \rvert ^s])^{1/s};\quad 0 < r < s < \infty. \] Minkowski Inequality: Let \(S\) be a measure space, let \(1\leq p\leq \infty\) and let \(f\) and \(g\) be elements of \(L^p(S)\). Then \(f+g\) is in \(L^p(S)\) and we have the Minkowski inequality \[ \|f+g\|_{p}\leq \|f\|_{p}+\|g\|_{p}. \] Fatou's Lemma: If \(X_{n}\geq 0\) then \(\liminf_{n \to \infty}\mathbb{E}[X_{n}] \geq \mathbb{E}\left[\liminf_{n \to \infty}X_{n}\right]\).

Monotone Convergence Theorem: Let \((X_{n})_{n \in \mathbb{N}}\) be a sequence of non-negative monotonically increasing random variables on \((\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P})\) where \(X_{n}\stackrel{a.s}\to X\). Then we have that \[ \lim_{n\to \infty}\mathbb{E}[X_{n}]=\mathbb{E}\left[\lim_{n \to \infty}X_{n}\right]=\mathbb{E}[X]. \] Chebychev Inequality: Assume that for some random variable \(X\) we have that \(\mathbb{E}X<\infty\). Then \[ \mathbb{P}(|X-\mathbb{E}X|\geq \epsilon )\leq {\frac{\operatorname{Var}(X)}{\epsilon ^2}}. \]

3 Convergence Theorems

Monotone Convergence Theorem

\(\{ X_{n} \}\) such that the pointwise limit \(X(\omega)=\lim_{n\to \infty}X_{n}(\omega)\) exists, assume there is an integrable random variable \(Y\) with \(\lvert X(\omega) \rvert\leq Y(\omega)\) for all \(\omega \in \Omega\), then \(X\) is integrable as in \(X_n\) for all \(n\) and \[ \lim_{n \to \infty}\mathbb{E}[X_{n}]=\mathbb{E}\left[\lim_{n\to \infty} X_{n}\right]=\mathbb{E}[X]. \]

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